Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the referendum in Belarus: what happens next?

Within days of Russia starting its war against Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities proceeded with a manipulated referendum in which, they say, more than half of the country’s voters approved constitutional reforms that would enable Lukashenko to stay in power until 2035, open the way for stronger military cooperation with Russia and bring an end to Belarus’s non-nuclear status. Despite the dangers of public dissent, the vote prompted an upsurge in protests with at least 800 arrested. Hours later, it was reported that Lukashenko had ordered troops into the Chernihiv region of Ukraine.

In the context of these distressing and rapidly evolving developments this webinar seeks to understand recent developments in Belarus. How do ordinary Belarusians feel about relinquishing their neutral, non-nuclear status? What is their reaction to aggressive military cooperation with Russia, against Ukraine? Can the fight for democracy and independence gain new momentum from a related anti-war movement? How can the international community and the democratic forces sustain the message of fighting repression and authoritarianism, while the world imposes sanctions and isolation alongside Russia? 

These and other questions will be discussed at the expert webinar jointly convened by the Research Centre of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Office (OST Research Centre) and the Oxford Belarus Observatory (OBO), with the support of the GCRF COMPASS project.